Weather Maker: Arizona Forecast

Arizona Monsoon Outlook

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 17:51:14 GMT

ARIZONA MONSOON FORECAST

SYNOPSIS:

AT 12Z THE 250MB CHARTS SHOWS THE MAIN HI LOCATED OFF THE BAJA SPUR WITH SMALL WIGGLES MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH A BASIC WEST NORTH WEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA. FLG AND TUS SHOW RATHER WARM UPPER LEVELS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM -39C TO -41C.

12Z 500MB CHART SHOWS HI PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF SW US PACIFIC COAST TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FLOW IS NNE OVER ARIZONA AND DEWPOINTS RUN FROM -12 TO -13C. TEMPS ARE COOL ENOUGH AT 500MB BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY CAUSE SOME SERIOUS CAPPING. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER RIO GRANDE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY THIS DIRECTION.

12Z 700MB CHART SHOWS THE -4C DEWPOINTS ARE COVERING ALL OF THE STATE BUT FLOW IS RATHER WEAK.

12Z 850MB CHART SHOWS THAT THE 8C DEWPOINT LINE RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF TUS TO GILBERT TO SHOW LOW. HOWEVER WHAT IS A GOOD SIGN IS THE FLOW IS SHOWING A MORE SE DIRECTION SO MOISTURE SE SHOULD MAKE IT NORTHWEST WARD.

TUS SKEW-T IS FORECASTING AROUND 1000 CAPE AND LI - 5 BY AFTERNOON SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE BUT WARMING AT AROUND 600MB MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CAP SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE STRONGER TODAY THOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS SEEM TO BE MORE UNSTABLE.

FGZ SKEW-T IS FORECASTING MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF AROUND 500 AND LI -3. IT TOO IS ALSO SHOWING UPPER AIR WARMING AT 600MB. THIS TOO IS SIMILAR IN THAT THERE IS MORE CAPPING, BUT A MORE UNSTABLE LOWER LEVEL.

TODAY'S OUTLOOK...

AS OF 17Z THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIM AND SE. SO I BELIEVE THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CAP AT 600MB. SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER EASTERN RIM SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT DO TO SOME UPR LVL SPEED MAX'S, BUT I DONT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

FLG...10%

PAY...10%

SOW...20%

PRC...10%

PHX....0%

YUM...0%

TUC...10%

DAY TWO, THREE, FOUR OUTLOOK...

12Z MODELS TODAY DIDN'T INITIALIZE THE RIDGE POSITION AT ALL WELL. SO THEY ARE BASICALLY USELESS. THE BEST WAS THE NAM SO I WILL LEAN TOWARDS THAT ONE FOR NOW. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE 300MB RIDGE TO BUILD AS WELL AS THE 500MB. HOWEVER, THE MAIN CENTER REMAINS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THUS, EVEN IF WE HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOOOO WARM AND CAPPED TSTORMS WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME GETTING STARTED. SO ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND ISOLATED. ALSO I BELIEVE THE FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME EVENTUALLY DRYING ALOFT. THAT WILL WORK AGAINST US ALSO.

FLG...5, 5, 5

PAY...10, 10, 10

SOW...15, 10, 10

PRC...10, 10, 10

PHX....0, 0, 0

YUM...0, 0, 0

TUC...10, 5, 5

LONG RANGE SUMMARY...

GFS - WHICH I DON'T KNOW HOW RELIABLE IT IS LOOKS TO PLACE THE 500MB HIGH IN A MORE MONSOONY POSITION. FLOW MAY BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS TIME GOES ON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

PHOENIX FORECAST

Tue, 10 Jul 2007 06:18:27 GMT

VALID: 20070828 - 20070902

TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THEN LATER TOWARDS MORNING.

LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS 10 PERCENT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS EVENING WITH A DUST STORM POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS FROM 104 TO 107. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS 20 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN CLEARING LATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS 20 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS FROM 100 TO 105. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS 30 PERCENT

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR: THURSDAY...FRIDAY...SATURDAY...SUNDAY

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS WILL BE FROM 104 TO 108 AND LOWS WILL BE FROM UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SUNDAY.

AZ THUNDERSTORM FORECAST: VALID 20070827 - 200906

Mon, 25 Jun 2007 22:05:24 GMT

VALID 20070827 - 200906

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

WELL TODAY COULD BE VERY INTERESTING FROM ABOUT FLG TO PHX TO TUS EAST. A LITTLE UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THRU THE WEST PORTION OF AZ AS OF 12Z AND CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY RIPE FOR SOME STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALL LVLS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR SUPPORT FOR THIS INCLUDING UPR LVLS. MOISTURE ISNT AN ISSUE.

SKEW T PLOTS FOR FLG AND TUS SHOW A GOOD UNSTABLE ATMOS WITH TUS HAVING A CAPE OF 651 BUT INCREASING TO 2000 LATER TODAY.

THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH SCNTRL AND SE AZ IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE UT AND AZ BORDER WHERE MOST OF THE DIFFULENCE WILL BE.

500MB TEMPS ARE ALL ABOUT -6 AND WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THE TEMPS DROP TO -7 AND -8 SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY FOR SOME ISO SVR WX.

KGCN...40%

KFLG...50%

KPAY...60%

KSOW...60%

KPHX...30%

KYUM...0%

KTUS...30%

KDUG...40%

DAY ONE THROUGH DAY THREE:

12Z WV SAT SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP BAJA WITH SOME GOOD CONVECTION AROUND THE EAST OF THE GULF OF CAL. SO I THINK IN BY DAY TWO OR THREE WE SHOULD SEEN AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AGAIN MAINLY OVER SE AZ AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES EAST AGAIN. I DO NOT THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE 115 DEGREE HEAT AGAIN THIS WEEK. THAT INV TROUGH I THINK WILL PUT A KABASH ON THAT.

WV SAT SHOWS A POSITIVE TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. SO I THINK WE WILL BE IN THE SAME PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THESE INV TROUGHS RIDE UP THE BAJA COAST WE WILL SEE AN INC OF STORMS AND THEN A QUICK DECREASE AS THEY MOVE AWAY.

SO I THINK DAY ONE AND POSSIBLY TWO WILL BE A DOWN BUT BY DAY THREE THINGS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE INV TROUGH.

CITY....TUE/WED/THU

KGCN...0/10/10

KFLG...10/10/30

KPAY...10/10/40

KSOW...20/10/40

KPHX...0/0/20

KYUM...0/0/20

KTUS...10/20/40

KDUG...10/30/40

DAY FOUR THROUGH DAY SEVEN:

RIGHT NOW I DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE EPAC TROPICS ARE PRETTY ACTIVE, WITH DISTURBANCES AND WE MAY SEE A TS DEVELOP LATER, BUT FOR NOW I THINK WE WILL BE IN THIS ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. SO IT WILL BE HARD TO DETERMINE WHICH DAYS WE WILL HAVE AN INCREASE AND DECREASE. RIGHT NOW THE NEXT INV TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE YUC PENESULA SO THAT IS ABOUT 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. SO I THINK WE WILL HAVE A LULL DURING THIS TIME, BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE TROUGH SPIN UP SOUTH OF MEX BECAUSE OF STORM COMPLEXES.

CITY...FRI/SAT/SUN/MON

KGCN...10/10/20/10

KFLG...10/10/20/10

KPAY...10/20/30/20

KSOW...20/20/30/20

KPHX...0/10/10/0

KYUM...0/0/10/0

KTUS...10/20/30/10

KDUG...30/20/40/20