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6月25日 AZ THUNDERSTORM FORECAST: VALID 20070827 - 200906VALID 20070827 - 200906
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
WELL TODAY COULD BE VERY INTERESTING FROM ABOUT FLG TO PHX TO TUS EAST. A LITTLE UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THRU THE WEST PORTION OF AZ AS OF 12Z AND CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY RIPE FOR SOME STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALL LVLS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR SUPPORT FOR THIS INCLUDING UPR LVLS. MOISTURE ISNT AN ISSUE.
SKEW T PLOTS FOR FLG AND TUS SHOW A GOOD UNSTABLE ATMOS WITH TUS HAVING A CAPE OF 651 BUT INCREASING TO 2000 LATER TODAY.
THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH SCNTRL AND SE AZ IS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE GOING TO BE OVER THE UT AND AZ BORDER WHERE MOST OF THE DIFFULENCE WILL BE.
500MB TEMPS ARE ALL ABOUT -6 AND WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THE TEMPS DROP TO -7 AND -8 SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY FOR SOME ISO SVR WX.
KGCN...40%
KFLG...50%
KPAY...60%
KSOW...60%
KPHX...30%
KYUM...0%
KTUS...30%
KDUG...40%
DAY ONE THROUGH DAY THREE:
12Z WV SAT SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP BAJA WITH SOME GOOD CONVECTION AROUND THE EAST OF THE GULF OF CAL. SO I THINK IN BY DAY TWO OR THREE WE SHOULD SEEN AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AGAIN MAINLY OVER SE AZ AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES EAST AGAIN. I DO NOT THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE 115 DEGREE HEAT AGAIN THIS WEEK. THAT INV TROUGH I THINK WILL PUT A KABASH ON THAT.
WV SAT SHOWS A POSITIVE TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. SO I THINK WE WILL BE IN THE SAME PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THESE INV TROUGHS RIDE UP THE BAJA COAST WE WILL SEE AN INC OF STORMS AND THEN A QUICK DECREASE AS THEY MOVE AWAY.
SO I THINK DAY ONE AND POSSIBLY TWO WILL BE A DOWN BUT BY DAY THREE THINGS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE INV TROUGH.
CITY....TUE/WED/THU
KGCN...0/10/10
KFLG...10/10/30
KPAY...10/10/40
KSOW...20/10/40
KPHX...0/0/20
KYUM...0/0/20
KTUS...10/20/40
KDUG...10/30/40
DAY FOUR THROUGH DAY SEVEN:
RIGHT NOW I DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE EPAC TROPICS ARE PRETTY ACTIVE, WITH DISTURBANCES AND WE MAY SEE A TS DEVELOP LATER, BUT FOR NOW I THINK WE WILL BE IN THIS ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. SO IT WILL BE HARD TO DETERMINE WHICH DAYS WE WILL HAVE AN INCREASE AND DECREASE. RIGHT NOW THE NEXT INV TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE YUC PENESULA SO THAT IS ABOUT 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. SO I THINK WE WILL HAVE A LULL DURING THIS TIME, BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE TROUGH SPIN UP SOUTH OF MEX BECAUSE OF STORM COMPLEXES.
CITY...FRI/SAT/SUN/MON
KGCN...10/10/20/10
KFLG...10/10/20/10
KPAY...10/20/30/20
KSOW...20/20/30/20
KPHX...0/10/10/0
KYUM...0/0/10/0
KTUS...10/20/30/10
KDUG...30/20/40/20 |
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